Sunday, February 25, 2018

Forex Forecast: Recovery on US Growth is Quicker than Expected in Q4 2009

February 16, 2010 by  
Filed under Uncategorized

The American’s economy recovery is faster than most forex analysts predicted in year 2009 final quarter. U.S Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rise rapidly at 5.7% annual rate at 4th quarter 2009, above market consensus of 4.5% to 4.8%. this makes it the largest quarterly growth since the 3rd quarter of 2003, which was at 6.9%. However, from a report from the Commerce Department, it reported that the GDP of the whole 2009 year closed with a 2.4% decrease.

The US dollar climbed against the Japanese yen at first after the publication of the good news data. However, some option related offers from New York are ahead of 91 level.

Earlier, the Euro dropped down against the US dollar for many months. It goes as low as 1.3912 earlier now partly because of the issues at Greece. Moverover, from Eurozone data, December unemployment rate came in at ten percent. It was slightly better than economists’ consensus of 10.1% while at the same time, the January Flash Consumer Price Index showed 1%, lower than what the market forecast at 1.2%. Swiss’s economy data is better than economists’ predication and the KOF index increase from 1.68 to 1.77.

The cable slide down after triggered stops below 1.6100 and 1.6070. It dropped to an intra-day low of 1.6054 after US GDP data shows a more firm figures and more stops below 1.6000 are getting more attention.

Canada also issued its GDP data for November. It reported that their economy is rapidly increasing by 0.4% at November 2009 while forecast is at 0.3%. this increase is lead by gas, oil and mining sectors together with wholesale trade output, which has their biggest increase in 2 years. This causes an uptrend revision of the previous month data, from 0.2% to 0.3%. the Canadian dollar spring back quickly after the data and hovering around 1.060 against the US dollar.

Some currency traders are waiting for the January Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which is forecast at 57. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey forecast it at 73. with better-than-predicted GDP data, forex traders are now pose for these figures to outdo market consensus.

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